According to the report, despite a decrease in agricultural value added, overall economic activity continued to improve, driven mainly by the secondary branches and the continuous strengthening of services. Agricultural activities experienced a 3.9% regression in the first quarter of 2024 compared to a 6.9% increase in the previous year. This decline was attributed to unfavorable weather conditions that hindered the installation of autumn and winter crops.
Cereal sown areas decreased by 42.5% compared to the five-year average, mainly in favorable areas such as Saïs, Loukkous, and parts of Gharb. Extreme temperatures in mid-January 2024, combined with a 46.2% rainfall deficit by the end of February, impacted the development of most crops during their early and advanced vegetative stages.
However, the return of rains in March helped limit the rainfall deficit to 20.6% since the beginning of the agricultural season, benefiting seasonal fruits and vegetables. In the animal sector, efforts to rebuild the livestock herd were compromised by degraded grazing lands and prolonged rainfall deficits in the first five months of the season. Local red meat production was delayed, with the local market mainly relying on imports of cattle and sheep.
On the other hand, prospects for white meat growth improved, driven by a drop in compound feed prices and a decrease in international corn prices. Poultry meat production increased by 2.5% in the first quarter of 2024 compared to a 2.4% increase in the previous year.
In the secondary sector, the value added increased by 6.3% in the first quarter of 2024, boosted by the rebound in extractive industries and mining. Mining value added increased by 11.2%, driven by a 28.3% expansion in phosphate production. The low fertilizer stocks in North America and strong demand from Brazil fueled the international trade in fertilizers, leading to a 54.7% increase in national phosphate exports.
Manufacturing industries showed a growth of 6.8%, driven by sectors such as chemicals, transport equipment, rubber, and plastics. However, the agri-food industry continued to decline, albeit at a slower pace, while the textile industry maintained its downward trend due to weak sales.
In construction, a robust growth of 3.7% was recorded in the first quarter of 2024, driven by public works programs and reconstruction initiatives. The use of construction materials increased, with a 7.5% rise in cement sales. Despite this growth, the sector’s activity remained fragile due to a continuous slowdown in household demand.
Overall, the tertiary branches showed a 3.1% growth in the first quarter of 2024, with services to businesses maintaining momentum. However, services related to individuals and commerce experienced moderate growth.
In conclusion, the agricultural sector faced challenges in the first quarter of 2024 due to unfavorable weather conditions, while the secondary and tertiary sectors showed promising growth. The report from the HCP provides valuable insights into the current economic landscape and gives a glimpse of what to expect in the upcoming months.